Good News, Bad News Week

by | Sep 5, 2022 | Forex Analysis

Can't Win Them All

Hi guys, the good news is that the run-up from now to Christmas is usually the most profitable time of the year in my experience.

The Bad news?

There is a TON of news this week!

In my webinar on the 4th of January, I explained my bias for the year which was $ strength. Since then I have shown how watching the $index has continued to support that theory. It has also given us lots of winning Chf trades and that may be the case again the week ahead.

It stopped at the double top last week, but better USA jobs news on Friday it has now broken higher,

If we get A pullback in the $index it hopefully gives us a good chance for CHF again.

We have BankHoliday on Monday in the USA and Canada. So it may well be a slow day, especially the CAD.

Last week I provided my pre-NFP market round-up. Hopefully, you didn’t trade it as it could have kept you out of losers. The Majors for example EURUSD Shot up at the time of the news and then headed back down again. It is a perfect opportunity for the market makers to make money off retail traders.

You can view the article here

Pre NFP roundup

I also posted another fundamental article by Alf, He formally was head of a $Billion bond fund, so he clearly knows what he is talking about when it comes to macro/fundamentals. He explains how the bond market is a leading indicator when it comes to currencies, stocks, etc.

He uses that information to give him a bias for investing and trading currencies, stocks, ETF’s as well as bonds.

You can find his post here:

the moment of truth for markets

The Forex Week Ahead

There is a TON of news especially for the AUD this week, which means we need to tiptoe around it. Big Euro news on Thursday so make sure not to trade it -if you do its gambling not trading.

CAD finally broke through above 1.30, We have the rate statement this week which will either stop it or the Cad might be off on a big run-up.

I Expect the euro to drop to 0.900 BUT I need a pullback AND a Ukraine or the Electric deal at any time could see a retrace. THAT will be the opportunity to short it for me.

In the UK electricity dramatic price rises will kill off the hospitality, retail & catering industries. Commercial prices are rising SEVEN X and could get worse. I spoke about a bar owner whose monthly bill is due to rise from around 5000 to GBP35, 000 a month! This is obviously unsustainable and if the government do not act rhis will devastate the UK economy.

The new prime minister (who will be revealed on Tuesday) will want to hit the ground running and an energy deal would have a positive effect and will hopefully give a pullback opportunity to short the Gbp higher up.

Possible “back up the truck buy” (not financial advice on silver if drops to anywhere near $14).

I will be hosting the live session on Thursday with Ashley and will go into all of this in more detail then so make sure to come along! If the time doesn’t work for you look out for the recording.

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Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away.

EUR/USD: I’m leaving the Euro alone for now as it’s in the parity region. No multiple reasons for the stop. If it shoots up the first place I’ll look to short is around 1.0170.

USDJPY: haven’t traded this pair for a long time, but 136.00 is an area to watch for a long if you trade it.

USD/CHF: Looking to long at 0.96500 and if it drops lower I will look to enter again at 0.9520.

GBP/USD: leaving alone for now as the UK economy is in a mess. I will only look to short it if it shoots up to 1.20.

AUD/USD: missed it last week by a fraction. I will look to short now around 0.6940 BUT there is big news most days.

NZDUSD: Only looking to short at 0.65600. Intraday 0.6190 is an area to watch on shorter timeframes

USD/CAD: Finally broken 1.30 after 2 years. I will look to long around 1.2960, BUT not around the news this week.

CROSSES

EURGBP: It has broken the 200 EMA finally. However fundamentally it doesn’t make sense so I’m leaving it alone for now.

EURNZD: Interesting on a Daily to short at 1.64000 and 1.64600

EURCAD: Im looking to short at 1.3680 & 1.38720, long way off, so unlikely this week.

EUR/AUD: I am looking to short again at 1.4790.

EURJPY: Not a strong area but 137.74 /138.00 is an area to watch.

AUDCAD: Short around 0.9080/split and other half at to 0.9150,

AUD/NZD: 1.1100 is an area interesting for a long. 1.1040 looks a better area for the Long due to the 61.8 fib.

AUDCHF: Looking to short again at 0.6720 and 0.6740 with a split entry.

AUDJPY: I will look for longs around 91.60

GBPCAD: 1.5500 is the area interesting for a short.

NZDCHF: interesting to short again at 0.6200

As always, remember correlation!

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

Kind regards,

Marc

Related posts:

Weekly analysis: Big potential trade at open & big news ahead this week. flag patternTricky Big News week, Whats the Plan? Big News Week: Trade Plan Weekly analysis: A-grade setups but Caution rules the week

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