Hi, in recent weeks I have been warning about not buying at tops nor selling at bottoms on most pairs.
This advice was based on technical and fundamental analysis and my “gut feeling” based on 15 years of experience.
Last Fridays NFP could well be a game changer for the $USA:
On top of that Trump has said that he wants a stronger $ and the rest of the world want to weaken their currency, so this could be it.
BUT! it may just be a short bounce before resuming its weakness (seems unlikely but this being forex anything is possible) SO best advice is wait until after London opens on Monday and even New York to see whether this is a short-lived bounce or full-blown reversal.
Ideally we want to trade with the trend. If we don’t know what it is then we are trading blind.
I will update you all on Tuesday when we will know more, but I have posted the main areas to look for possible trades and explained in more detail in the video.
Some people are complaining that there are no big moves at the moment, I disagree 🙂 Two weeks ago in my analysis I explained why I was focusing on the Cad, Aud & the Gbp and just 2 of them went over 600 pips.
Last week some of my trade plan gave entries and I sent out a message explaining that I was looking to short the Gbp/Nzd which went 150 pips. Equally, I said I was shorting the Euro/Yen. That went 50 pips but came back and took me out, I was hoping it would go further.
TRY to get to the live training sessions, we are able to explain our plans in much greater detail and those who can attend have a better chance of having a profitable week. If you can’t make it then make sure to check out the recording and the notes. As ever some of the trades that we showed in the last session fired and gave pips once more so don’t miss out!
Please register for this week’s Forex Mentor Pro Live Training on Tuesday, 6th February 2018 at 11:00 AM GMT (London Time) at:
Live training session with Marc Walton. Pierre du Plessis & Judith Waker. The team will assess fundamentals, M2 Earth & Sky & the trigger system for potential trades. Followed by a Q & A session
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
The Forex Week Ahead
Hopefully you now realise why we don’t trade NFP Friday. Unexpected positive news and the $ shot in the opposite direction. I closed my Cad trade for 200 pips profit before the event. Had I left it to run it would only have been 70 pips.
Misconceptions re news: One of the new members asked in last weeks live session “how is possible to trade when there is so much news.” I explained that apart for some major USA news, especially NFP & FOMC, you only need to be careful on specific currencies. For example this week Draghi speaks, ergo be careful with all Euro pairs. The RBA & RBNZ have announcements this week, so avoid any Nzd and Aud pairs at the appropriate time, everything else should not be affected.
Caveat: I am not placing any forward orders for now. As I have explained above I am waiting to see what happens tomorrow, but these are the major areas I am looking at and I will take an Aud/Yen trade if it sets up and I am watching the Gbp/Nzd once more. Also the Euro/Yen has broken a major area so I am interested to long it at a pullback.
Euro/$ Main area if it’s going to drop is to at least struggle at 1.2000 but it may be a limited “dead cat” bounce.
Chf: Use for correlation with the Euro. When it goes down, Euro goes up and vice versa: 0.9700 is the big area on this one.
$/Yen: Messy. Safest for me is a break and close above 114.30 which seems miles away right now. Other than that 11.30 has been major previous support & resistance
Aud: Areas where it could bounce? 0.7825 I am interested to long. Also 0.7730. The only place I will put a forward order is to long at 0.7600 for multiple reasons.
Cad: Made 200 last week. 1.2530 is once again key but this time it could go straight through it. If so I will look to long on a daily candle close above there, followed by a pullback.
GBP/$ 1.3850 is first area it is most likely to struggle- I am more confident longing if it gets back down to 1.3650 .
Euro/Gbp: Usually one of my favourite pairs, but too choppy of late. I am still interested to short at 0.9000. Also watch 0.8700 for longs.
Aud/Yen: Interested to short again at 89.00. If it drops further then a long at 86.50 as explained in the video
Nzd: 0.7100 is first area to look for a long for me. Too much under current price to short.
Gbp/Nzd: Not one of my normal pairs, but interested to short again at 0.9400 and long at 1.9130
$/Sgp: Interested to short at 1.3450
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads. We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum in Pierre’s corner.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode