Marc's Forex Analysis For The Week Commencing 12th JanuaryHi, I showed you in my 2014 analysis/ December 29ths post that I aim wherever possible to trade from monthly and weekly charts this year. The Cad that I was explaining I expected to move substantially higher missed my entry and 350 pips profit 🙁 so what do you do when that happens?

I show you in detail in todays video. However if you are learning or like to trade then that may not suit your current phase or state of mind. In todays post I show you updates on my potential monthly trades, weekly set ups that interest me , ok I will work a bit harder if I must 🙂 and finally a few areas for those of you looking for trades on daily and intra day set ups.

If you trade from monthly charts then you may only make a few trades per month, as trading forex is my main source of income my priority is to make money not “to trade” -the less time I spend in front of my charts the better!

When trading from longer time frames you need to adopt the mindset and also get used to having bigger stops. This does not however affect the amount of money you risk per trade, simply the amount risked per pip. For example I am looking at a trade set up today that has a 140 pip stop which will freak some of you, BUT I will risk the same $ amount as if it was a 20 pip stop AND the trade has a potential 1:9 risk reward ratio which is awesome!

The best advice is do your own analysis before you look at mine. That way you will learn to do this for yourself. Also the week end is the perfect time as price is not moving so there are not adrenalin spiked moves to distract you. The other thing is you may see set ups that I have missed, then check out mine.

After Fridays NFP release there is the potential for gaps at the market open, if you are new I show you here how I trade gaps, its not a strategy that’s recommended if you are new to trading, but demo trade it and see if it suits you.

Euro/$: I see better opportunities elsewhere as this is technically very messy at the moment and fundamentally I feel that the Euro should be going down, not up so “confused” is my state of mind 🙂

However on a weekly if price pulls back to 1.3350 I will long. It’s a 200/55ema cross on the weekly and previous support & resistance and the 78.6% fib is just below, so multiple reasons.

Intra day its more messy. Price has simply been bouncing around with no clear direction, but for longs if you are trading during the day watch 1.3355 for clues to long and 1.3830 to short, explained in the video. When I talk about clues I am referring to watch 4 hour candle closes. Look at candle patterns, Bollinger bands, emas, fibs etc for clues that price will bounce off an area.

Gbp/$: Weekly: Price broke and closed above 1.6300 in November and it has held since. It is also the intersection of a trend line that goes back to last summer and 78.6% fib so LOTS of reasons & the 55ema is not far below which will be a good place to put my stop below.

Intra day 1.6400 held last week and there is 50% fib and daily trend line intersecting with a support line but I would not place a forward order for this, rather watch it in 4 hour for clues.

Aud/$: I am looking for long term shorts here. I said in my 2014 analysis that this should continue to fall and I was hoping for a monthly close below 0.8900 but it didn’t happen.

From monthly/weekly analysis I am looking to short either at a break and close below the recent low at 0.8820 followed by a pull back but I prefer a pull back now. My first choice for a forward order is to short at 0.9400. If that fails I will do so again at 0.9500. This could go almost 1000 pips so its worth waiting for!

Intraday it looks temporarily bullish and like gold it has broken a downwards channel so if you are feeling brave then consider a counter trend long if price pulls back to 0.8900. Its counter trend so if I take it I will halve my usual stake to reflect the higher risk element.

Euro/Gbp: I still have the balance of a short in play from Christmas time. I closed half prior to NFP and moved my stop on the balance. I want to get into this again and am only looking for shorts. Either a break and close (on at least a daily candle) below the trend line around 0.8250 followed by a pull back OR a pull back from current position (it looks bullish on daily). Personally I will not long it, but I am looking to SHORT at 0.8350 and 0.8400 once more. I will place 2 orders. Half at each potential entry point. Again this has a potential risk reward ratio that could see 500 pips move which would be huge on this pair. I double my stake on this pair as its daily range averages half of the Euro/$

$/Yen: Set off and didn’t pull back. I am only looking for longs in 2014 SO now I need a pull back. My preferred entry is 101.14 which is 50% fib, trend line, previous major support & resistance If that loses I will re long at 100.00

Intraday 103.10 is monthly 200ema so definitely the area to watch.

Euro/Yen: I am wary of longing any Euro pairs at the moment but equally I don’t want to short this right now. 140.00 will tempt me for a forward order IF I don’t have too many other open trades.

Intraday 141.00 looks like a strong support area as well BUT I don’t have multiple reasons so no trade for me.

Aud Yen: Another messy pair. Like all cross pairs it is made up as follows. Multiply the current price of the Aud/$ & $/Yen = current Aud/Jpy price eg: 0.8993 X 104.15= 93.66

So the $/Yen is fighting to rise and the Bank of Japan are helping it and the Aud is fighting to fall and the RBA is wanting that, so we have the proverbial tug of war going on.

Weekly: I will leave it alone unless it pulls all the way back down to 92.00 which is weekly 78.6% fib and trend line intersection and 55ema (multiple reasons once more). If it sets off north and breaks and closes on a daily candle above 94.60 I will look for an M2 pull back entry.

Intra day: Price is bouncing between 93.00 and roughly 94.00. 93.00  is the daily 55ema and price has failed to break it for almost 3 weeks so its a fairly strong area so worth considering

Usd/Cad: I said at the end of December that I expect this to hit 1.200 and maybe more in 2014. “ Major break out on a monthly chart. I will look to long at 1.0550″.I set my order at 1.070 and it missed it by 15 pips and went 350 bah humbug 🙁 move on.com i t happens so where now?

I will not get involved in its current position. I need a pull back. I show in great detail in the video how and why I have revised my plan and why I have chosen 1.0700 for multiple reasons

New members please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, at for example 1.6000 , I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself. For more up to the minute updates do not forget to drop by the forum which is buzzing! Pro traders Pierre and Omar are in there as well as other experienced trader members. You have a lot to learn and they are happy to share,

regards,

Marc

 

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