Hi, I warned last week that the 4th July Friday Bank holiday would probably mean that there would be very little movement in the forex world and it was exactly what happened.
Whilst my mother told me that nobody likes a “smarty pants” 🙁 I have been watching forex charts for almost 20 years and that’s why I am here to mentor you! Hopefully, you took my advice as it was like watching paint dry on Friday.
I also cautioned that we might be entering summer “ranging” markets and I explained in last weeks live training session, how to trade them. I also gave you more details on the strategy and some rules to implement it in last Thursdays blog post.
The Forex Week Ahead
This week sees a lot less scheduled red flag news. For those trading the Aud be careful on Tuesday as its the interest rate news and statement. Unless there is an M3 opportunity on Monday I will leave this pair alone until London opens on Tuesday.
Friday (which I recommend you don’t trade anyway) is red flag Canadian news so definitely leave that alone then.
I made today’s video and analysis on Saturday. At the moment all seems to be quiet on the White House front. If there is any surprise news or extraordinary event before the market opens I will update you on Monday or in Tuesdays live training session.
Once again the Bollinger bands are closing up (suggesting price drying up on the Yens). I do have one Yen on my A grade list this week and show my thoughts on some of the others in the video. See the video as to how I use them for added confirmation to take a trade.
€uro/$: 1.1000 is the A grade trade for me, but 1,1100 is also an A grade (if this fails and the pairs drops lower I will long again at 1.1000). AT 1.1100 there are multiple reasons for the entry and stop (61.8% fibs, whole number, previous support and resistance, 55ema) plus a decent potential risk reward, see the video.
Watch the Chf for confirmation. See the video for a full explanation. If it moves higher I will look to short at 1.1350. Intraday M3 traders watch 1.1400.
Chf: My bias is to short it. 0.9560/9600 is the big area on a weekly either to short it or use it to confirm a long on the Euro/$- see the video and last Tuesdays live session for a full explanation.
Euro/Gbp: I only want to long. I will watch at the open and on the M3 30 minute chart and might scale in. Half at 0.9000 and the 2nd part at 0.8960- see the video.
Gbp/$: I am not convinced in either direction at the moment. The areas of interest are a long at 1.22000 and short at 1.2600 but not a forward order. I will watch the M3 for any entry- this may be the best chance.
€uro/Aud: 1.6500 is a big area to short. Previously it bounced to the pip off a weekly trend line after the drop. The trend line is at 1.6100 now so watch there for a possible long and definitely at 1.5960/1.6000.
$/Yen: Still too messy for me on longer timeframes. I show in the video how 108.00 short and 107.00 long are potential areas of interest on the M3 smaller timeframes. The Euro/Yen looks a lot more interesting.
€uro/Yen: I haven’t traded this for months, but 120.00 is a huge area to long and 124.00 to short- see the video.
Cad: To short I will do so at 1.3700 now. If it doesn’t pull back and keeps dropping I need a daily candle to clearly close below 1.3500 which has the weekly 55ema acting as support now.
If it shoots higher I will short again at 1.3825. If it drops dramatically I will long half at 1.3070 & the other 50% @ 1.3000. Remember any levels I post here I place long orders 10 pips above and shorts 10 below.
Nzd: Slight bias is short. The NFP data was better than expected and the RBNZ said a few weeks ago that they don’t want the NZD to get stronger so there is a lot of pressure for it to drop BUT it broke and closed above the very important 0.6500 last week.
One to watch on the M3 for possible longs (the range) at 0.6400 and lower at 0.6330 or a short at the top 0.6700
Aud: Correlated with the Nzd. 0.7000 is key. Same as last week when I said “Broke higher, stopped at the HUGE area of previous support and resistance of 0.7000.” again it was an M3 due to a lack of a strong area to hide the stop. If it pulls back its another one I will look to split the entry/scale in 0.6730 & 6700.
As with the NZD. I would need a break and close above 0.7000 on a daily to think about along on a move higher.
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts in the members area as to how this works: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.