Hi, a lot of the entries I was looking for last week worked BUT as I had forewarned, the news was going to be an issue.
The Aud, in particular, had a slew of red flag news most days, finally ruined by NFP Friday (when of course it dropped as I had expected) along with the Nzd, the Euro/$ et al!
The coming week sees a lot less red flag scheduled news, of course, we are always only a Tweet away from some Trump nonsense.
The China trade war is ongoing along with the Iranian issue and any number of fights he wants to pick.
In the Uk the vote for the next leader of the Conservative party (who automatically becomes Prime Minister) has started.
The odds still appear to be in favour of the likeable fool Boris Johnson.
In truth, neither candidate is inspiring and the British political scene is in such a mess it’s hard to
know what will happen next.
As ever I am looking to place forward orders wherever possible so will be looking at the market open for some possible entries.
The key to successful trading is how MUCH you win, not how many.
The forex week ahead
I recorded the video and notes on Saturday. If any major event takes place before the market opens we all might have to review our trade plans.
Last week saw yet more positive jobs data for the USA. The theory now is that the Fed will be less likely to cut interest rates, so Trump will no doubt try and increase the pressure on Fed chair Powell.
The latter has the FOMC meeting minutes coming out on Wednesday which could rock the markets and he also testifies on Thursday before the Senate.
The Canadians have their interest rate news released on Wednesday, but other than that it’s potentially a quieter week (hopefully I am not tempting fate).
GBP/$: Swing traders will be watching at the open for a possible long. We are at a double bottom area and a weekly trend line going back to 2017 so if it’s going to bounce anywhere….. If you take it halve the stake as its counter-trend and therefore, riskier.
1.2990 is the best place for me for a short, for multiple reasons: Previous major support and resistance, whole number, 78.6 fib most recent daily move, and weekly 55ema all in the area (see the video)
Intraday 1.2770 was strong resistance last week, but nowhere for me to place a stop. Also, watch 1.2900. Best advice keep your eye on UK news here: https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/
Euro/Gbp: Same as last few weeks: Too messy, no risk-reward in either direction. If it drops I am interested to long around 0.8750
Euro/$: I only want to short, it broke back down below 1.1300 which is definitely an area to watch, though not a forward order for me. That is at 1.1400
Aud: 0.7000 is STILL the big area. I would prefer it to drop further and then pull back to 0.7000 but I will watch at the open for a possible short entry. Swing traders will be interested to long again from 0.6850 if it drops.
Nzd/$ My bias is still to short, for the last week it has bounced repeatedly back down from the daily 200ema, now at 0.6715. I will look to short there with a stop above the weekly 55ema at 0.6752. If it keeps dropping then look for a break and close below 0.6600 preferably on a daily, (at the very least on a 4-hour chart) then pullback to M2 short. If it moves higher I will short at 0.6800
$/Yen: Same as last week: I am interested to short at 109.30 IF it slows down there. If not and it shoots higher I will place a forward order to short again at 110.00 once more, for multiple reasons.
Cad: Its messy and big news from both sides on Wednesday. If it drops then I will long at 1.3000, half stake. If it moves higher 1.3260 is my first choice to short ( I will start watching from 1.3220).
Same advice as last week: Watch oil closely. Any hint of further attacks or military engagement in the middle east will have a big effect on oil supplies. 1.3520/3550 is the place to watch for a short if it shoots up.
Nzd/Cad: Its way off at the moment, but stranger things happen in trading! A forward order for me is to short between 0.8880. Swing traders watch the double bottom at the open for a counter-trend long.
$/Sgp: Nfp ruined it last week. 1.3600 WAS a good area to consider a short BUT there is not enough reward versus the risk now. I prefer a break and close above 1.3640 and then a pullback to long.
If it drops below 1.3480 (ideally below 1.3440) THEN pulls back I will also look for an M2 short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum in Pierre’s corner.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode
