Hi, on Friday Pierre “owned up” to having a bad week for a number of reasons, mostly of a psychological nature.
Coincidentally I was having my bi-annual “mental health tune up” last week with my mentor, Rich Friesen.
If you are not familiar with Rich you can check out his bio here: Rich Friesen MA
The short version is Rich started trading for Merrill Lynch in the “pit” back in 1983. He since gained lots of letters after his name with his study of trading psychology and now works with top traders, banks, individuals and the good news is he going to start taking part with FMP members once more.
THE most important thing to note is that his training & advice is priceless and helped me stop losing back in 2005/6 and then go onto trade for a fund less than 12 months later!
Rich has posted a new article in his blog that you can find here: Rich’s FMP Blog
You can also find a mini-course in the Education area AND he has kindly invited us to attend one of his members live training sessions this coming Wednesday
Invitation to Rich Friesens Member’s Only
(Non Sales) Live training session:
Topic “13 Nightmare Trading Traps”
What You’ll Learn: This webinar creates an awareness of our brain’s unconscious biases, filters and trading traps. It starts with a real-time assessment that creates an awareness of the major mind traps that are common to many independent traders. With this assessment, you can visually see a graphic that demonstrates the gap between your rational understanding of trading success and your own trading reactions, biases, filters and trading traps.
We then proceed to the Mind Muscles model for behavioural change and learn how every trader can lay the foundation to trade like the master trader they desire to be.
You will leave with an expanded awareness of the mind traps that produce repeated trading errors and are dragging down your profits.
Date & Time: Wednesday, September 26th, 2018 at 1 PM US Pacific Time, 4 PM Eastern.
CLICK HERE TO REGISTER & Download The Worksheet
Last week, I said “Now more than ever we need to pay attention to what is driving prices. For the Gbp its Brexit, Brexit, Brexit…….. boy was I correct!
I recorded a number of live videos last week, including trading the Gbp/$ -which I was already in from last weeks spookily accurate analysis 🙂
In the video(s) I showed you the entry, stop, original target. Then I showed you how I was managing the trade during Prime Minister Mays surprise announcement and the outcome.
Here is a link to the live video https://www.forexmentorpro.com/members-area/another-200-pip-pre-planned-winner/ and check it my other posts form last week.
If you recall I also pre-planned another successful Aud/Nzd trade that gave me 100 pips.
That was 2 trades last week that gave me over 300 pips and I shared them here with you first.
We also discussed them in more detail in last Tuesdays live training session
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FMP Live Training Session on Tuesday 11.00am (London) time
TRY to get to the live training sessions, we are able to explain our plans in much greater detail and those who can attend have a better chance of having a profitable week. If you can’t make it then make sure to check out the recording and the notes. As ever some of the trades that we showed in the last session fired and gave pips once more so don’t miss out!
Please register for this week’s Forex Mentor Pro Live Training on Tuesday, 25th September 2018 at 11:00 AM GMT + 1 (London Time) click on the following link:
A live training session with Pierre du Plessis & myself this week. The team will assess fundamentals, M2 Earth & Sky & the trigger system for potential trades. Followed by a Q & A session
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
If you miss it, you will find a recording here on the blog, later the same day.
The key to successful trading is how MUCH you win, not how many.
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The Forex Week Ahead
News
Its a BIG news week and as ever there is Trump to potentially rock the boat. Last week he had a go at OPEC, Canada, China Russia as well as his own Justice Department to name but a few. If any of his friends or inner circle knew what he was going to say they could make a fortune in the currency markets!
NAFTA & Brexit still dominate their respective currencies.
As ever check the calendar before taking any trades: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Keep up to date with various news sites like http://zerohedge.talking-forex.com/live.html & Bloomberg to name a few.
My Analysis
Technically a lot of pairs are either at or have broken some big technical areas and yet I am very wary about jumping in too soon. As ever these might be “fake outs”
I have had a very good month and last weeks trades mean I have beaten my target so I am going into ultra-conservative mode. I do not want to give back any of my profits.
I have a few pairs that I will consider trading and I will continue to manage my Gbp/$ trade, presuming it doesn’t get taken out at the open.
In truth, NOBODY has any idea how the markets are going to react. Mrs May stood up to some of the arrogant sods in the EU, especially that unelected little oik, Tusk. People do well to remember that the British are generally laid back, but people forget that underneath the politeness, they do well to remember that if the Brits get pushed into a corner they do not give in easily!
Yes, the Gbp tumbled, but in amongst all the posturing on both sides, the Eurozone has a LOT to lose too if there is no deal. Especially in Germany. They export 21 BILLION GBP more of goods to the Uk than the Uk to Germany (the trade deficit) per annum. German companies own the major car marques and a lot of minor ones too. Also at this, time Trump is threatening tariffs on cars from the Eu to the USA, ergo German sales may be affected. Do people really think that they want to stop trading with the Uk??
Here is a lot of interesting data on trading that takes place between EU countries and the UK https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/
Added to that is the complication that the Uk’s ruling Conservative party is tearing itself apart over Brexit and the opposition party is no better. It is a complete and utter shambles. Bottom line if you are not in any Gbp trades now, leave well alone.
In Germany, Chancellor Merkel has a fragile hold on power that is again under pressure. Italy’s new ruling group have been warned by the central bank not to increase their already huge budget deficit so everything is as clear as mud
News
Draghi is speaking to the EU parliament on Monday which could rock the Eurozone.
Japan MAY be offering a deal re tariffs with the USA.
Nzd had better than expected news last week and more big news this week.
The big event of the week is the FED on Wednesday. All the experts expect a rise which should be factored in (if it doesn’t rise the $ should drop. What the analysts will be watching closely is their guidance as to future increases. Around the time of the release is far is too dangerous a time to be trading! Best advice leave it alone..
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Cad: It has broken and closed below 1.3000 so we expect that to become resistance to a move higher. It also broke the daily trend line and emas and yet I am very wary about shorting this now. Trump and Nafta is an ongoing issue. I prefer to watch and wait to see what happens. Even though it has done an M2 break out of a daily trend line and ema I am wary. The more conservative approach to short is to let it break the 78.6% fib first at 1.2860 on a daily candle THEN I will consider it.
Pay close attention to news and even Trump’s Twitter feed if you decide to trade it!
Euro/$: No one knows what the reaction will be after a weekend break to the Brexit situation. Best advice is wait until after London opens. If it continues to move up I will still be looking to short as high as 1.1800. If that fails and price CLOSES above on a daily candle, only then will l need to start to think about a long, but for now my bias is still slightly short.
Aud: I said last week “0.7300 is the main area for me.” It hit it almost to the pip on Friday. I prefer forward orders. I will watch this at the open, though check in with Pierre on this one as it suits his method better than mine. I have preferred the Aud/Nzd in recent weeks. If this Aud races higher then 0.7500 is THE place for a forward order for me.
Aud/Nzd: Murphy’s law it did it on Friday again, but I had already banked 100 earlier in the week and I rarely open new trades on a Friday so I left it alone. I was also rather busy trading the Gbp! The risk-reward is not as good as it has been in recent weeks but fundamentals and technical analysis are still in agreement, still no guarantee of course!
Last week saw better than expected Nzd news and there is BIG Nzd this week. Other “areas of interest” for those trading intraday or Pierres’ strategy is obviously 1.1000. Finally if breaks and closes below 1.0840 on a daily I will short it on a pullback. To long I will consider scaling in, see the video
GBP/$ : Trade of the month so far: I said last week “My bias is still to short and 1.3290 is the A grade for me” that was 240 pips away at the time and it worked within 15 pips! Now its gone. If you are not in it best advice is to leave it alone. If you do trade it wait until after London opens DO NOT BE TEMPTED to trade any potential gaps at the open. These are extraordinary times and usual rules do NOT apply.
IF price starts to move to the “edges” then we can discuss as the week progresses. Swing traders will be interested to long at 1.3000 but not for me.
As ever Brexit rumours and counter comments influence this greatly.
Euro/Gbp: Worked last week, I said “I still only want to long, if price pulls back to 0.8870 is now the area. I show in the video how I will split the trade in half. One part with a smaller, more aggressive stop. The 2nd with a more conservative. See the video.
It worked BUT I chose the Gbp as I felt it was a better entry, remember the Euro/Gbp go in opposite directions. Shorting the Gbp/$ and longing the Euro/Gbp is the same “bet” and therefore doubles your risk.
Last week it stopped at 0.9000 which was to be expected. Swing traders will look there for shorts, not for me, but again follow Pierre on this one. If it pulls back down I will consider longing from the same position as last week and again scale in.
$/Yen: Pinbar reversal candle on Friday but its been all over the place last week. There is talk of a Japanese compromise over tariffs which could rock this. I Still prefer a pullback to long again all the way back down to @110.50. Another to consider scaling in, see the video. A more aggressive entry to consider is 111.30.
Nzd/$ Same as the Aud. It pulled back with 2 pips to my entry point of 0.6700on Friday. So it is the area. Again watch on Pierre’s strategy & smaller time frames. We do not know if last weeks $ weakness was just temporary. If I had to choose I would take the Aud short as it has more reasons for my stop.
Gbp/Aud: Interest to long at 1.7700 1.7780 is the area to consider a long. NOT an A grade forward order because of all the previous caveats about the Gbp. If for some reason it shoots up then I will short at 1.8490 for multiple reasons,
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads. We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum in Pierre’s corner.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode
