Hi guys, Trading Forex After the Summer Break.
This is a copy of the detailed analysis I share with members every weekend before the markets re-open.
We just had probably the best summer results in 10 years.
If you are a new member then go back through some of my July & August posts in my blog. See how I make a plan on a weekend.
I am looking for the best setups which I believe have the highest probability. Where the price is most likely to react for multiple reasons.
You can check out a short review of last weeks trades here, where we banked over 250 pips by Tuesday morning. This is extraordinary. Do not think this will happen every week. It will not.
Accept the results from the good weeks and stick to your trading results. Do not get “cocky” and then give it all back!
Usually, at this time, when the kids are on holiday and many of the big traders are away, there is not much movement and its harder to make money.
We just had 8 winning weeks and 1 break even, which is outstanding in July & August. So what’s the plan?
- Do not get carried away and become overconfident.
- Make a plan and be patient and disciplined as always
After big holidays it is not unusual to see the big boys come back and have a “what the…..” reaction and price promptly reverses.
In my experience, this usually happens after the 5th September when European & UK schools re-open.
There is, of course, nothing “normal” at the moment and there is doubt in many countries whether kids will go back to school.
Even if they do, then they could just as quickly close once more if there is a spike in the Covid situation.
As ever be careful.
I am going to wait and see what happens.
This week its the “big news week of the month” culminating with NFP Friday which we never trade as its forex at its silliest.
Its also the big week for Aud news. The rate statement on Tuesday will be closely watched. I suspect the RBA will try to talk the Aud down as they have previously stated they do not want it to be any stronger as it affects their exports. So even though it has broken the major 200ema and 55ema it could just as easily reverse back. On Wednesday its then Aussie GDP and Friday NFP, in general, its easier to leave the Aussie pairs alone and look elsewhere.
I have a few trades on my radar. On a lot of pairs, it might be best to go down to a 4 hour chart and use the Earth & Sky this week as explained in the video.
Most Interested to trade this week:
Gbp/Cad Won again last week and went over 250 pips. I will long again at 1.7240. However, it may not pullback that much in which case 73.00 is the area to watch on a 4 hour- see the video. Be careful at the market open with this pair as the spreads often widen dramatically.
Euro/Yen: Won last week. 124.60 to 124.00 is the area. I might scale in half at each
Cad Yen: I feel more confident with the Euro Yen, but same as last week: “82.90 is an A grade short. 79.70/ 80.00 are areas to watch on smaller timeframes for a long”-
Nzd/Cad: Hopefully you avoided a loss on Friday, remember I do NOT open new trades then. Now its a mess, leaving it alone.
The rest need bigger pullbacks:
€uro/$: I show in the video why 1.1650 is now of interest for those trading the 4 hour. I prefer a pullback to 1.1520 to long.
Chf: Drifting lower, nowhere for a stop. My bias is still to short it. 0.9230 is of interest. I hardly ever trade it, but if it bounces down there the Euro will most likely bounce up. See the video.
Euro/Gbp: Weekly triangle break suggests an 800+ pip move which would be exceptional for this pair. I wanted it to break up, not down! However, 0.9000 is the area for a short.
Gbp/$: Finally broke the weekly 200ema, teasingly stopped at the 55ema. I am only interested to long if it pulls back all the way to 1.3150. Swing traders will be looking to short at the open, but not for me.
$/Yen: Japanese Prime Minister Abe has resigned due to health reasons. If his replacement is seen to be more of a hawk then this could drop substantially, probably only for a short time (over-reactions to this type of news are quite common)!
Its not my favourite pair and I haven’t traded it for a few months but 107.00 is of interest to short. If not I would want a break and daily candle close below 104.00 then pullback. The danger is if the new guy is seen to be a weaker choice it will probably shoot up. So be careful if you take it and watch the news closely.
Cad: 1.3260 is of interest to short. 1.3000 is huge previous support and resistance I will long if it drops.
Nzd: 0.6500 interesting to long
Aud: Technically it has broken the weekly 200/monthly 55ema so its a long? I am very wary of this and Nzd. See the video. News will define this and especially what the RBA have to say on Tuesday. They don’t want it to get stronger.
Aud/Yen: 75.00 is an A grade to long. 76.00 is worth watching on 4 hour to long too.
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts as to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
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Trading Forex After the Summer Break