Weekly Analysis: Plenty going on

by | Oct 17, 2022 | Forex Analysis

Fundamental

Hi Members,

The beginning of the week was quiet, but it took off on Thursday and Friday. This was because of the CPI data which came higher than expected.
It shows green on the calendar but of course, this is not good for the economy. CPI increasing means the prices of goods are increasing and making it more unaffordable for people to live. Inflation is too high!

Data

Then you had the retail sales which were not that good either but that is somewhat expected when inflation is high as people tend to spend less and save more.

Then we had a lot of speeches too which Included the UK Prime Minister delivering a speech, BOJ Kuroda, The FED members repeating the same thing every week that inflation is too high, Bank of Canada. So the market was very volatile and also some of the moves were unpredictable. I have spoken briefly about it in the video.

For example, for my EURAUD trade, I did mention I would close 1 of the 2 trades I had on there just in case before the CPI, which I did for 150 pips. Then on Friday, it reversed after retail sales, and my second trade was taken out for 60 pips, made 90 pips on that one.

My GBPAUD and EURGBP are still in profit and running, I left them over the weekend as. But I might have to close the GBPAUD when the market opens as the weekly candle closed pretty strong so it could head higher. EURGBP is 64 pips in profit.

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The Forex Week Ahead

On Tuesday morning we have NZD CPI. Wednesday is an important day for the GBP as the CPI y/y is released. Followed by that is the CAD CPI as well.

Then on Thursday, we have AUD employment news and Friday GBP retail sales.

Not much news but make sure to tip-toe around it.

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MAJORS

My fundamental bias is still $ strength versus all majors. As ever keep watching the $ index for clues.

Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away.

EUR/USD: 0.99900 was the area for a short but that opportunity has gone now. I’m 280 pips up on it. Need to make a lower low to look for an entry or short again the same region if it gets up there.

USD/CHF: Looking for intra-day long at 0.99000

GBP/USD: I only want to short. worked perfectly in the area I advised on Earth and Sky at the WR1 at 1.13720. Would short there again.

AUD/USD:  Red news this week on Thursday. A grade is to short at 0.66590. 0.65430 is also an interesting area for a short.

NZDUSD: too far away from EMAS. leaving alone.

USD/CAD:  I don’t fancy this one anymore in the area it is in. Need a pullback to 1.29660 for long, multiple reasons watch the video.

CROSSES

EURGBP: Looking to long at 0.8630, it’s now fired had you taken it.

EURCAD: Only interested to short near 1.37800 area .

EURNZD: I have orders at 1.68200 and 1.65400 for a long.

EUR/AUD: Won and lost on it this week. I would leave it alone for now due to the reasons mentioned.

AUDCAD: Short around 0.88430

AUD/NZD: I would look for shorts now at the 200 EMA 1.12700

CHF/YEN: Now interesting to long at 146.300

AUD/YEN: Looks interesting for a short at 93.740 on the 4HR

CAD/CHF: 0.73480 is an A grade short.

NZDCHF: 0.5700 is a good area for a short.

As always, remember correlation!

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):

Regards

Ashley

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