Weekly Analysis: Risk off market

by Ashley DeSousa | Sep 25, 2023 | Forex Analysis

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Weekly Analysis: Risk off market

We had a lot of surprises this week in the market. Firstly the FED didn’t change their rates but haven’t ruled out another rate hike later in the year. Secondly, CHF and GBP have decided to keep their interest rates the same when it was actually forecasted for them to increase it. This was seen as a negative by the market and we saw the CHF and GBP weaken further.

Japan has kept their interest rate the same as expected and are not bound to change the policy until the start of next year. Furthermore, the manufacturing figures in the Eurozone have come out worse than expected for another consecutive month suggesting a recession and contraction in the economy.

The 55MA has crossed the 200 MA on the daily timeframe on the giving us a clue that $strength is bound to continue further this week. If we get a clear breakout of the region at 105 I think this should continue for the rest of the year and we could see the EURO/USD tumbling down further.

The Forex Week Ahead+++++++++++++++++++++++

The last two weeks were very busy with major news announcements for the different currencies. For the week ahead it looks more calm and we should be able to trade the pairs comfortably. There is Flash CPI for the EUR on Thursday and Friday so just manage your trades on that day for the Euro if you get in it.

MAJORS

Keep watching the $index it is now at a major “make your mind up” area once again on the weekly charts. It is now stuck at the 55EMA and you have the 200 EMA just above it. If it could break above that we could be looking at $ strength.

Remember I am looking for “A” grade trades from weekly & daily charts that I can place the orders and then just walk away. A “B” grade is one that I will watch on 4 hour timeframes to see how it reacts if it hits my zone.

EUR/USD: If it shoots up to 1.07700 I will short as that is the A grade area for me.

USD/CHF: In a clear uptrend, looking to long on pullback at 0.88670

Do not take the Euro/$ & Chf at the same time. They are correlated so it’s the same “bet.”

GBP/USD: A grade short at 1.24580. I will be watching to short at 1.23800 on 4HR intradday.

AUD/USD: Leaving alone prefer EUR and GBP.

NZDUSD: Only interesting to short at 0.61500

USD/CAD: If it breaks 1.35 , I will look to long on 4HR.

USDYEN: Only interesting to long at 145 on a pullback.

CROSSES

Some are A grades where I will place forward orders, most pairs have “areas of interest.” I have a lot of similar crosses so be very careful with the correlation.

EURGBP: Has finally broken above the EMAs on the weekly timeframe. Will look to long at 0.86680

EURAUD: One to watch but a long anywhere near 1.63 is interesting, tricky for the stop not a forward order.

EURCAD: Waiting for the pullback to short at 1.44650

AUDJPY: Forward order in the same region as last time 92.10

NZDCAD: 0.8265 is an area of interest to short.

GBPCHF: I’m interested to short at 1.12800

As always, remember correlation!

M3 -Shorter timeframes.

I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them onto Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.

New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.

We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.

Watch the video below for more detailed explanations of this week’s analysis and trade plan (click the 4 arrows bottom right to view full-screen):#

Kind regards,

Ashley

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