Hi, there are a LOT of technical clues that we might see some big moves in the next week or so and yet…… at this time of year markets usually slow right down, so how to play them?
Here is a copy of the detailed analysis I share with members every weekend before the market opens:
There are big triangles suggesting some huge moves. At any other time of the year it would be a no brainer, but we need to be more conservative right now. I give a detailed account in the video. I recommend you watch that for a more comprehensive description.
I also have a “gut feeling” that we could see $USA weakness this week, but I could be completely wrong. The best advice is to trade what you see and make sure that you have confluence and multiple reasons to take a trade and even more important, as many reasons as possible for the stop.
I explain in my detailed analysis & trading plan why the Gbp looks a lot more tempting than the Euro/$, the $/Yen and quite a few others at the moment. So how do you try to filter through all the charts and data to be able to come up with a final plan?
As ever start with the weekly charts and try and find the areas that jump out at you. Where price is most likely to react for those multiple reasons.
Then go to the daily setups and see if there is more activity in the same area. Support & resistance in all its forms, trendlines, Fibonacci, the 55 & 200 emas, macd (there is some divergence on a few pairs this week for the 1st time in a month), Bollinger bands etc. If you can’t find many check if either the weekly or daily pivot is in the same place.
I show a lot of examples of this in today’s video.
What if there are quite a few possible trades setting up at the same time? This happens a lot with the Yens for obvious reasons and there are quite a few this week.
Clue, which has the best realistic reward versus the risk?
Is there major news out in the next few days on one and not the other?
Does the fundamental bias support your plan, ie is the trade with the trend or against it.
The live training session: Here is a link to register for this weeks live training session which takes place on Tuesday 14th July at 11.00am London time (BST/GMT+1).
Then we can have a more detailed, up to the minute look at what’s happening and potential trades for the rest of the week.
https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_iBR1IvEuQN-dniYXRjKbLw
The Forex Week Ahead
Do not take too many trades at one time this week. Yes there are a lot of tempting setups, but if the markets go sideways none will win!
This week starts off slowly for red flag news. There is of course the danger of unscheduled news and especially from a certain person’s Twitter feed!
If you intend to trade any Yen pairs then either close them or at least have the stop to entry before the swathe of news and the press conference early on Wednesday (UK time). On the same day there is a lot of red flag news, so the same rules apply.
On Thursday its the turn of the Aud, then the GBP and finally the EU big event of the week for the Eurozone. Finishing up with the US retail sales. Its probably best if you can make your target and be out of everything by the time New York opens.
I made today’s video and analysis on Saturday. At the moment all seems to be quiet on the White House front. If there is any surprise news or extraordinary event before the market opens I will update you on Monday or in Tuesdays live training session.
I do have one Yen on my A grade list this week and show my thoughts on some of the others in the video. See the video as to how I use them for added confirmation to take a trade.
€uro/$: There is a lot going on here from a technical perspective. Triangles, ranges, break outs, emas galore.
I show in the video why I prefer the triangle setup on the GBP as the risk-reward is better. I will focus on the same plan as last week (the short worked) and if it drops then 1.1000 is the A-grade trade for me, but 1,1100 is also an A grade (if this fails and the pairs drops lower I will long again at 1.1000). AT 1.1100 there are multiple reasons for the entry and stop (61.8% fibs, whole number, previous support and resistance, 55ema) plus a decent potential risk reward, see the video.
Watch the Chf for confirmation. See the video for a full explanation. If it moves higher I will look to short at 1.1350. Intraday M3 traders watch 1.1400.
Chf: My bias is still to short it. 0.9540/9600 is the big area on a weekly either to short it or use it to confirm a long on the Euro/$- see the video. Intraday (M3) 0.9500 is an area to watch. Last week it bounced off the double bottom and there was some macd divergence as a clue. but I prefer a short. If it just drops then I need it to break and close below 0.9340 on a daily and then pullback.
Euro/Gbp: I didn’t buy it the first few weeks it broke out. I did last week and then it reversed and took me out! Its tricky now. An A grade long for me is 0.8810 for multiple reasons. Don’t be in it on Thursday. 0.9000 is an area of interest to short on the M3. If it breaks and closes above there, then I would consider a long, depending on where the pivots are.
Gbp/$: Its in a 1600 pip weekly triangle (remember the Cad has done 680 of its recent 1000 pip triangle break out, I am hoping this will do the same). I need it to break and close on a daily chart above the weekly 55ema at 1.2635 and ideally above last weeks high at and 1.2665, then pull back to long. It has the potential to do at least 500 pips to the next major resistance. If it drops I need it to break and close on a daily below 1.2460
Intraday (M3) method The areas of interest are a long at 1.22000 and short at 1.2600.
Gbp/Nzd: not one of my usual pairs but new member Tom asked me to look at it and 1.9500 is an A grade short for me, if it shoots up. Seems unlikely now, but hey this forex and anything can and will happen 🙂
There is macd divergence on this pair which Tom used last week to catch a long at the BIG area of 1.9000 so a counter-trend long there is on my list.
€uro/Aud: 1.6480 is a big area to short. Previously it bounced to the pip off a weekly trend line after the drop. The trend line is at 1.6120 now so watch there for a possible long and definitely at 1.5960/1.6000.
$/Yen: Still too messy for me on longer timeframes.
€uro/Yen: I haven’t traded this for months, but 120.00 is a huge area to long and 124.00 to short- see the video.
Cad/Yen: A grade is a short at 83.00 for me. If it breaks and closes below 78.00 look for an M2 short.
Cad: To short I will do so at 1.3670 now. If it doesn’t pull back and keeps dropping I need a daily candle to clearly close below 1.3500 which has the weekly 55ema acting as support now.
If it shoots higher I will short again at 1.3825. If it drops dramatically I will long half at 1.3070 & the other 50% @ 1.3000. Remember any levels I post here I place long orders 10 pips above and shorts 10 below.
Nzd: There is Macd divergence on the daily suggesting a move lower. The A grade long for me is at 0.6400. On the M3 look for a short at the top 0.6700. Using this method also consider a short at 0.6600.
Aud: Correlated with the Nzd. 0.7000 is key. Same as recent weeks when I said “Broke higher, stopped at the HUGE area of previous support and resistance of 0.7000.” again it was an M3 due to a lack of a strong area to hide the stop.
If it pulls back its an A grade long for me. I will look to split the entry/scale in 0.6740 & 6700.
As with the NZD. I would need a break and close above 0.7000 on a daily to think about a long on a move higher.
M3 Shorter timeframes
See the new course & recent blog posts in the members area s to how I do this: I do my analysis on daily and weekly charts first and make a note of the MAJOR areas of support and resistance. Then copy them on to Pierre’s Earth and sky template. Then I make a note of the weekly & monthly pivots points and add them to the charts. You will see lots of opportunities line up during the week. The important thing then is to select a bias for the next few days and do NOT take trades if the price is too near a trend line or pivot. Ideally, you want to buy when the price is near a major support and or pivot point line and has the potential to make at least 40 pips. Vice versa for a short.
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads.
We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
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Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
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BIG Forex Moves
