Hi,I said last week that “we live in such extraordinary, political times that it seems that the extremes have become the new normal”
This week Trump has declared tariffs on Mexico (he still doesn’t “get it” that US consumers will have to pay more for their imported goods).
He is visiting the UK for a few days and is already dictating his views on Brexit & who should lead the UK.
Now the rhetoric is starting to crank up a gear with the Chinese defence minister warning the USA to keep its nose out of the South China Seas.
He states that China doesn’t want war but will fight for what they claim to be their territory.
Then in the Middle East, the Iranians are saying that if there is a war that oil will go to $100 a barrel (which it probably will).
What happened to diplomacy?
Is nobody else concerned that the lunatics have taken over the asylum!
The key to successful trading is how MUCH you win, not how many.
Trading Week Ahead
Last week I explained how I was looking to trade from the “edges” to try and avoid the crazy moves and I will continue to do so.
This week there is a lot of Aud news and its NFP Friday, so despite everything else that is going on around the world, we have to pay close attention to scheduled news.
Last weeks Euro/Nzd: I took half of the profit of around 80 pips at the trend line as per my plan. I then moved the stop clsoer on the 2nd part but it was unfortunately taken out on the pullback. I am still watching this pair to take it again, either at the top or if the trend line breaks and holds- see the video.
Gbp/Cad: Member Alvin again showed a good setup in last weeks live session: This looks interesting to short at 1.7230 area for multiple reasons. If it drops then I will definitely long at 1.6900.
GBP/$: Politics in the UK are broken. There is no viable end in site re Brexit. Whoever becomes the new Prime Minister or even if there is a general election I just do not see a way out of the current mess. I am only interested if price pulls back. At the moment it just keeps dropping but its too far away from emas etc to place a stop.
1.2900 is the first place to look for a short and if it shoots higher then definitely 1.3000 for me.
This week’s European election results will be closely watched and spun by Remainers and Brexiteers alike. It is also a Bank Holiday on Monday which will probably mean thin liquidity which can result in crazy spikes, so trading it on Monday is VERY risky.
Intraday watch 1.2900. Best advice keep your eye on UK news here: https://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/
Euro/Gbp: Technically I am looking for a long at 0.8760.
Euro/$: The areas to watch: 1.1300 for a short (main one). 1.1200 is worth watching intraday. The other option is a swing trade up at 1.1100
Aud: 0.7000 is now obviously the big area to short on a pullback.
Nzd/$ My bias is still to short, so if it pulls back up to 0.6700 I will short it again. If it surprises everybody and spikes higher after all the news I will short at 0.6800
0.6500 is a HUGE area. It’s a weekly trend line that goes back to 2009! So I will look to long there, half stake as its counter-trend.
$/Yen: dropped like a stone on Friday. Keep your eye on the Nikkei for clues. I am half interested to short at 109.20
Cad: Oil fell off a cliff on Friday. So keep your eye on that. I am looking to long at 1.3370. If it moves up then 1.3550 is the place to watch for a short but if oil keeps dropping the Cad may be due to break out.
Nzd/Cad: member Surinder spotted this one “looking to short again 0.8930″
New members, please note: If I am looking to take a trade long, for example, 1.5000, I place my order 10 pips above & 10 pips below for a short. This is because price often does not quite reach a major line and you need to allow for spreads. We are NOT a “tipping service” our aim is to teach you how to trade for yourself.
For more up to the minute, updates do not forget to drop by the forum in Pierre’s corner.
Watch the video for more detailed explanations of this week’s detailed analysis and trade plan.
Click on the square button bottom right to watch in full-screen mode